Police vs Gorilla: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Kigali Pelé Stadium, Kigali
The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 43%, against 33% for a draw and 24% for Gorilla. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs Gorilla?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Police (1,704) and Gorilla (1,635).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Police vs Gorilla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Gorilla
Not enough data to predict the Gorilla lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Gorilla have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sunrise(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 28, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Rayon Sports(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 31, 2026 | Al Merreikh(home) | 3-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Police wins, 3 draws, 1 Gorilla win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Gorilla 1-1 Police | National Soccer League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Police 4-0 Gorilla | National Soccer League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Gorilla 0-0 Police | National Soccer League |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Police 0-0 Gorilla | National Soccer League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Gorilla 2-0 Police | National Soccer League |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Police 1-0 Gorilla | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 0.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gorilla score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Gorilla | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 12th in National Soccer League (3 points from 2 matches) and Gorilla sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gorilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Police | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
A question about Police vs Gorilla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs Gorilla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 43%, against 33% for a draw and 24% for Gorilla.
- Where and when is Police vs Gorilla played?
- Police vs Gorilla is played on October 16, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Kigali Pelé Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.