Police vs Gorilla: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Kigali Pelé Stadium, Kigali
The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 50%, against 31% for a draw and 19% for Gorilla. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs Gorilla?
Police starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,737 vs 1,635).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; Gorilla have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Musanze(away) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Al Merreikh(home) | 3-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
| May 15, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | AS Kigali(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Police win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Gorilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Gorilla 1-1 Police | National Soccer League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Police 4-0 Gorilla | National Soccer League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Gorilla 0-0 Police | National Soccer League |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Police 0-0 Gorilla | National Soccer League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Gorilla 2-0 Police | National Soccer League |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Police 1-0 Gorilla | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 0.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gorilla score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 2/15 |
| Gorilla | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 6th in National Soccer League (52 points from 34 matches) and Gorilla sit 11th (40 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Police | 34 | 12 | 16 | 6 | 29 | 19 | 52 |
| 11 | Gorilla | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 31 | 42 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs Gorilla?
- The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 50%, against 31% for a draw and 19% for Gorilla.
- Where and when is Police vs Gorilla played?
- Police vs Gorilla is played on October 16, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Kigali Pelé Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.