Etincelles vs Marines: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab AI model makes Etincelles the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Marines. The most likely score is 1-1. If Etincelles wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,447 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etincelles vs Marines?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Etincelles (1,656) and Marines (1,657).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Etincelles vs Marines
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Etincelles
Not enough data to predict the Etincelles lineup.
Marines
Not enough data to predict the Marines lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:28 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etincelles have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Marines have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sunrise(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | APR(away) | 2-4 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AS Kigali(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Muhanga(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Etincelles win, 2 draws, 3 Marines wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Marines 2-3 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Etincelles 0-2 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Etincelles 0-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Marines 2-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Etincelles 2-2 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Marines 1-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Marines vs Etincelles on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Etincelles score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Marines score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etincelles | 1.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Marines | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etincelles sit 2nd in National Soccer League (7 points from 4 matches) and Marines sit 6th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Etincelles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
A question about Etincelles vs Marines?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etincelles vs Marines?
- The Footlab AI model makes Etincelles the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Marines.
- Where and when is Etincelles vs Marines played?
- Etincelles vs Marines is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.