Gicumbi vs Al Merreikh: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Gicumbi Stadium, Byumba
The Footlab model makes Al Merreikh the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Gicumbi. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gicumbi vs Al Merreikh?
Al Merreikh starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,676 vs 1,560).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gicumbi have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Al Merreikh have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | APR(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Mukura(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 15, 2026 | AS Kigali(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Bugesera(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 5, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 1-3 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 1-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 27, 2026 | APR(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 22, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 17, 2026 | Amagaju(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 10, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Gicumbi win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Al Merreikh win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Gicumbi 0-3 Al Merreikh | National Soccer League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Al Merreikh 1-0 Gicumbi | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Gicumbi vs Al Merreikh on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gicumbi score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Al Merreikh score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gicumbi | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Al Merreikh | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gicumbi sit 12th in National Soccer League (38 points from 34 matches) and Al Merreikh sit 3rd (59 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al Merreikh | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 41 | 24 | 59 |
| 12 | Gicumbi | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 54 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gicumbi vs Al Merreikh?
- The Footlab model makes Al Merreikh the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Gicumbi.
- Where and when is Gicumbi vs Al Merreikh played?
- Gicumbi vs Al Merreikh is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Gicumbi Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.