Where and when is Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań played?

Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań is played on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa

Warta Poznań

The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Warta Poznań. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?

A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Polonia Warszawa (1,886) and Warta Poznań (1,884).

Polonia Warszawa win41 %

Draw26 %

Warta Poznań win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polonia Warszawa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Warta Poznań have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Polonia Warszawa
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Nieciecza(away)	3-1	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Pogoń Siedlce(away)	0-1	I Liga
Aug 7, 2026	Ruch Chorzów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(home)	3-1	I Liga
Jul 26, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(away)	1-0	I Liga

Warta Poznań
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Chrobry Głogów(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-3	I Liga
Aug 9, 2026	Nieciecza(away)	2-1	I Liga
Aug 5, 2026	Resovia Rzeszów(home)	0-1	Cup
Jul 31, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Polonia Warszawa win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Warta Poznań win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 15, 2025	Warta Poznań 1-2 Polonia Warszawa	I Liga
Aug 23, 2024	Polonia Warszawa 2-0 Warta Poznań	I Liga

Last archived meeting: Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa on Mar 15, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Polonia Warszawa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Warta Poznań score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Polonia Warszawa	1.5	1.7	1	10/15	10/15
Warta Poznań	1.7	1.6	5	9/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Polonia Warszawa sit 4th in I Liga (10 points from 5 matches) and Warta Poznań sit 6th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Polonia Warszawa	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
6	Warta Poznań	5	3	0	2	10	8	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?: The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Warta Poznań.
Where and when is Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań played?: Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań is played on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.