Pontedera vs Castellanzese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 18Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Ettore Mannucci, Pontedera
The Footlab model makes Pontedera the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Castellanzese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontedera vs Castellanzese?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Pontedera (1,642) and Castellanzese (1,657).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontedera have 0 wins, 5 draws and 10 defeats; Castellanzese have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Livorno(home) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Sambenedettese(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ravenna(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Athletic Carpi(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Bra(home) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Milan II(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Chievo(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Pontedera score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Castellanzese score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontedera | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Castellanzese | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontedera vs Castellanzese?
- The Footlab model makes Pontedera the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Castellanzese.
- Where and when is Pontedera vs Castellanzese played?
- Pontedera vs Castellanzese is played on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ettore Mannucci, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.