Pontedera vs Castellanzese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 18Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Ettore Mannucci, Pontedera
The Footlab AI model makes Castellanzese the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Pontedera. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castellanzese wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontedera vs Castellanzese?
Castellanzese starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,740 vs 1,594).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pontedera vs Castellanzese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pontedera
4-3-3- 25Herculano Nabian
- 28A. Raychev
- 17P. Vitali
- 20R. Pietrelli
- 8F. Faggi
- 80Andrea Caponi
- 13M. Å apola
- 23C. Cerretti
- 94L. Piana
- 3D. Leo
- 21V. Biagini
Castellanzese
Not enough data to predict the Castellanzese lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 07:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontedera have 1 win, 2 draws and 12 defeats; Castellanzese have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Crema(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Coriano(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lentigione(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Città di Varese(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Crema(home) | 4-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Solbiatese(away) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Pontedera wins, 0 draws, 1 Castellanzese win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Castellanzese 3-1 Pontedera | Serie D - Girone D |
Last archived meeting: Castellanzese vs Pontedera on Sep 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pontedera score 0.6 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Castellanzese score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontedera | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Castellanzese | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontedera sit 18th in Serie D - Girone D (3 points from 8 matches) and Castellanzese sit 5th (15 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Castellanzese | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 15 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 3 |
A question about Pontedera vs Castellanzese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontedera vs Castellanzese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castellanzese the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Pontedera.
- Where and when is Pontedera vs Castellanzese played?
- Pontedera vs Castellanzese is played on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ettore Mannucci, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.