Pro Patria vs Pontedera: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Speroni, Busto Arsizio
The Footlab model makes Pontedera the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Pro Patria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pro Patria vs Pontedera?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Pro Patria (1,589) and Pontedera (1,642).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pro Patria have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Pontedera have 0, 5 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Gozzano(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Renate(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Arzignano Valchiampo(home) | 2-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Dolomiti Bellunesi(away) | 4-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Livorno(home) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Sambenedettese(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ravenna(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Athletic Carpi(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Bra(home) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Pro Patria win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Pontedera win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2021 | Pro Patria 0-3 Pontedera | Serie C - Girone A |
| Nov 22, 2020 | Pontedera 0-1 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 23, 2019 | Pontedera 2-1 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Mar 2, 2019 | Pontedera 1-0 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Nov 4, 2018 | Pro Patria 1-0 Pontedera | Serie C - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Pro Patria vs Pontedera on Mar 17, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Pro Patria score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pontedera score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Patria | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Pontedera | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pro Patria vs Pontedera?
- The Footlab model makes Pontedera the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Pro Patria.
- Where and when is Pro Patria vs Pontedera played?
- Pro Patria vs Pontedera is played on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Speroni, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.