Portimonense vs Chaves: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão
The Footlab AI model makes Chaves the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Portimonense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chaves wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portimonense vs Chaves?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Portimonense (1,932) and Chaves (1,960).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Portimonense vs Chaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Portimonense
3-4-3- 7Danio Djassi
- 2Edney
- 10S. Nakajima
- 15Xavier
- 8João Casimiro
- 9S. Yépié Yépié
- 21Yanis da Rocha
- 17João Reis
- 3Jarleysom Amurim
- 6S. Neves
- 1Dudu
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 16D. Yearwood
- 23Léo Alabá
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 33Tiago Simões
- 7R. Esajas
- 1João Valido
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portimonense have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Chaves have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Amarante(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Castro Daire(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Leixoes(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Portimonense wins, 0 draws, 2 Chaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Portimonense 3-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Chaves 0-1 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Chaves 2-0 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Portimonense 1-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Chaves 2-3 Portimonense | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Portimonense 2-1 Chaves | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Portimonense vs Chaves on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Portimonense score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chaves score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Chaves | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portimonense sit 11th in Segunda Liga (10 points from 7 matches) and Chaves sit 17th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Portimonense vs Chaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portimonense vs Chaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chaves the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Portimonense.
- Where and when is Portimonense vs Chaves played?
- Portimonense vs Chaves is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.