Portimonense vs Chaves: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão
The Footlab model makes Portimonense the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portimonense vs Chaves?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Portimonense (1,869) and Chaves (1,886).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portimonense have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Chaves have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vizela(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Penafiel(away) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AVS(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting CP B(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Academica(home) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Portimonense win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Chaves win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Portimonense 3-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Chaves 0-1 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Chaves 2-0 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Portimonense 1-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Chaves 2-3 Portimonense | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Portimonense 2-1 Chaves | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Portimonense vs Chaves on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Portimonense score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chaves score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Chaves | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portimonense sit 4th in Segunda Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Chaves sit 18th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Portimonense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 18 | Chaves | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portimonense vs Chaves?
- The Footlab model makes Portimonense the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Portimonense vs Chaves played?
- Portimonense vs Chaves is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.