Academica vs Chaves: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio EFAPEL, Coimbra
The Footlab AI model makes Academica the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Academica wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,526 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Academica vs Chaves?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Academica (2,022) and Chaves (1,929).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Academica vs Chaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Academica
4-3-3- 19Afonso Rodrigues
- 8K. Zohi
- 10I. Faure
- 20J. Sinisterra
- 25L. Pierre
- 92A. Coundoul
- 5Leandro Silva
- 3Ricardo Teixeira
- 2Xavi
- 22Hélder Lopes
- 12Victor Braga
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 16D. Yearwood
- 23Léo Alabá
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 33Tiago Simões
- 7R. Esajas
- 1João Valido
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 11:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Academica have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Chaves have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Real(away) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 0-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Penafiel(away) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Academica wins, 0 draws, 3 Chaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chaves 1-4 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Chaves 3-2 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 12, 2021 | Academica 1-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Academica 2-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 27, 2020 | Chaves 2-1 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Feb 9, 2020 | Chaves 1-2 Academica | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Academica score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chaves score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Chaves | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Academica sit 6th in Segunda Liga (12 points from 7 matches) and Chaves sit 17th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Academica vs Chaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Academica vs Chaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Academica the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Academica vs Chaves played?
- Academica vs Chaves is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio EFAPEL, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.