Portimonense vs Penafiel: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão
The Footlab AI model makes Penafiel the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Portimonense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Penafiel wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,525 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portimonense vs Penafiel?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Portimonense (1,894) and Penafiel (1,959).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Portimonense vs Penafiel
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Portimonense
3-4-3- 7Danio Djassi
- 2Edney
- 10S. Nakajima
- 15Xavier
- 8João Casimiro
- 9S. Yépié Yépié
- 21Yanis da Rocha
- 17João Reis
- 3Jarleysom Amurim
- 6S. Neves
- 1Dudu
Penafiel
3-4-3- 10Davo
- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 21Pedro Sá
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 50Francisco Varela
- 85Carlinhos Augusto
- 5Jaime Sánchez
- 27Gonçalo Negrão
- 6Adrián Pica
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 09:57 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portimonense have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Penafiel have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Amarante(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Castro Daire(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Leixoes(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Academica(home) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC Porto B(away) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Portimonense wins, 0 draws, 2 Penafiel wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Penafiel 0-1 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Penafiel 0-2 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Portimonense 2-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Penafiel 3-0 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Portimonense 0-2 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 19, 2021 | Penafiel 0-3 Portimonense | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Penafiel vs Portimonense on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Portimonense score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Penafiel score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Penafiel | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portimonense sit 11th in Segunda Liga (10 points from 7 matches) and Penafiel sit 4th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
A question about Portimonense vs Penafiel?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portimonense vs Penafiel?
- The Footlab AI model makes Penafiel the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Portimonense.
- Where and when is Portimonense vs Penafiel played?
- Portimonense vs Penafiel is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.