Where and when is Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise played?

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise is played on September 26, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Fitzpatrick Stadium, in the USL League One.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise: prediction and stats

USL League OneGroup StageKick-off on September 26, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Fitzpatrick Stadium, Portland, Maine

Portland Hearts of Pine

Sarasota Paradise

The Footlab model makes Portland Hearts of Pine the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Sarasota Paradise. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?

A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Portland Hearts of Pine (1,643) and Sarasota Paradise (1,651).

Portland Hearts of Pine win53 %

Draw24 %

Sarasota Paradise win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portland Hearts of Pine have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Sarasota Paradise have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Portland Hearts of Pine
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Richmond Kickers(away)	1-1	USL League One
Aug 19, 2026	One Knoxville(away)	1-1	USL League One
Aug 16, 2026	Forward Madison(home)	1-2	USL League One
Aug 8, 2026	Corpus Christi(home)	0-2	USL League One
Aug 1, 2026	Greenville Triumph(away)	3-3	USL League One

Sarasota Paradise
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Union Omaha(away)	1-1	USL League One
Aug 19, 2026	Chattanooga Red Wolves(home)	3-2	USL League One
Aug 15, 2026	Charlotte Independence(away)	1-3	USL League One
Aug 8, 2026	One Knoxville(away)	1-2	USL League One
Jul 29, 2026	Portland Hearts of Pine(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Portland Hearts of Pine win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Sarasota Paradise win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 29, 2026	Sarasota Paradise 2-2 Portland Hearts of Pine	Friendlies Clubs
Mar 28, 2026	Sarasota Paradise 1-0 Portland Hearts of Pine	USL League One

Last archived meeting: Sarasota Paradise vs Portland Hearts of Pine on Jul 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Portland Hearts of Pine score 1.6 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sarasota Paradise score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Portland Hearts of Pine	1.6	2.3	0	14/15	11/15
Sarasota Paradise	1.2	1.6	5	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Portland Hearts of Pine sit 13th in USL League One (23 points from 22 matches) and Sarasota Paradise sit 14th (22 points from 22 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	22	5	8	9	32	37	23
14	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?: The Footlab model makes Portland Hearts of Pine the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Sarasota Paradise.
Where and when is Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise played?: Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise is played on September 26, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Fitzpatrick Stadium, in the USL League One.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.