Where and when is Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence played?

Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence is played on October 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Cleland Stadium at Ihrig Feild at Sarasota High, in the USL League One.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence: prediction and stats

USL League OneGroup StageKick-off on October 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Cleland Stadium at Ihrig Feild at Sarasota High, Sarasota, Florida

Sarasota Paradise

Charlotte Independence

The Footlab model makes Charlotte Independence the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Sarasota Paradise. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence?

Charlotte Independence starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,780 vs 1,670).

Sarasota Paradise win35 %

Draw23 %

Charlotte Independence win42 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarasota Paradise have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Charlotte Independence have 9, 3 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sarasota Paradise
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Union Omaha(away)	1-1	USL League One
Aug 19, 2026	Chattanooga Red Wolves(home)	3-2	USL League One
Aug 15, 2026	Charlotte Independence(away)	1-3	USL League One
Aug 8, 2026	One Knoxville(away)	1-2	USL League One
Jul 29, 2026	Portland Hearts of Pine(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs

Charlotte Independence
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Forward Madison(away)	1-1	USL League One
Aug 15, 2026	Sarasota Paradise(home)	3-1	USL League One
Aug 12, 2026	Hartford Athletic(home)	2-4	USL League One Cup
Aug 8, 2026	Greenville Triumph(home)	1-0	USL League One
Aug 1, 2026	One Knoxville(home)	3-1	USL League One

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Sarasota Paradise win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Charlotte Independence win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Charlotte Independence 3-1 Sarasota Paradise	USL League One

Last archived meeting: Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise on Aug 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sarasota Paradise score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Charlotte Independence score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Sarasota Paradise	1.2	1.6	5	8/15	8/15
Charlotte Independence	2.1	1.5	3	11/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sarasota Paradise sit 14th in USL League One (22 points from 22 matches) and Charlotte Independence sit 2nd (43 points from 21 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Charlotte Independence	21	13	4	4	47	29	43
14	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence?: The Footlab model makes Charlotte Independence the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Sarasota Paradise.
Where and when is Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence played?: Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence is played on October 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Cleland Stadium at Ihrig Feild at Sarasota High, in the USL League One.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.