Preston vs Burnley: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 38Kick-off on March 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Deepdale, Preston
The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Preston. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Preston vs Burnley?
Burnley starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,907 vs 1,773).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Preston have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Burnley have 0, 6 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Huddersfield(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stockport County(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torino(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Preston win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Burnley win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | Preston 3-0 Burnley | FA Cup |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Preston 0-0 Burnley | Championship |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Burnley 0-0 Preston | Championship |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Burnley 3-0 Preston | Championship |
| Sep 13, 2022 | Preston 1-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Apr 22, 2016 | Preston 0-1 Burnley | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Preston score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Burnley score 1.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Burnley | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Preston sit 20th in Championship (0 points from 2 matches) and Burnley sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 20 | Preston | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Preston vs Burnley?
- The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Preston.
- Where and when is Preston vs Burnley played?
- Preston vs Burnley is played on March 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Deepdale, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.