Derby vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 38Kick-off on March 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Middlesbrough wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,370 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (2,009 vs 1,879).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs Middlesbrough
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Middlesbrough
3-4-2-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 2C. Brittain
- 10A. Morris
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 30Neto Borges
- 6S. Berhalter
- 8R. McGree
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 12L. Ayling
- 1R. Vítek
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Middlesbrough have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derby wins, 1 draw, 3 Middlesbrough wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Feb 12, 2022 | Middlesbrough 4-1 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 21, 2021 | Derby 0-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Derby vs Middlesbrough on Jan 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 23rd in Championship (6 points from 9 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 2nd (21 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Derby.
- Where and when is Derby vs Middlesbrough played?
- Derby vs Middlesbrough is played on March 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.