Burnley vs Bolton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 39Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Turf Moor, Burnley
The Footlab AI model makes Bolton the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Burnley. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bolton wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,713 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burnley vs Bolton?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Burnley (1,923) and Bolton (1,961).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Burnley vs Bolton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Burnley
4-2-3-1- 9J. Vardy
- 29J. Laurent
- 3Max Alleyne
- 19L. Ramazani
- 7J. Bruun Larsen
- 5R. Hatate
- 44Igor
- 2K. Walker
- 23Lucas Pires
- 15A. Ahmedhodžić
- 37G. Coudert
Bolton
4-2-3-1- 10S. Dalby
- 8J. Sheehan
- 22Gaizka Larrazabal
- 11T. Gale
- 17A. Ito
- 21E. Erhahon
- 18E. Toal
- 14A. Famewo
- 5L. Brunt
- 27Luca Stephenson
- 31G. Bazunu
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 12:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burnley have 1 win, 8 draws and 6 defeats; Bolton have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford(away) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Burnley wins, 1 draw, 1 Bolton win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2016 | Bolton 1-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2015 | Burnley 2-0 Bolton | Championship |
| Feb 11, 2014 | Bolton 0-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Aug 3, 2013 | Burnley 1-1 Bolton | Championship |
| Feb 9, 2013 | Bolton 2-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Aug 18, 2012 | Burnley 2-0 Bolton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Burnley score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bolton score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Bolton | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burnley sit 22nd in Championship (8 points from 11 matches) and Bolton sit 15th (14 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 8 |
A question about Burnley vs Bolton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Bolton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bolton the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Burnley vs Bolton played?
- Burnley vs Bolton is played on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Turf Moor, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.