Provincial Osorno vs Trasandino: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónPromotion Group - 4Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta, Osorno
The Footlab model makes Provincial Osorno the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Trasandino. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Provincial Osorno vs Trasandino?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Provincial Osorno (1,645) and Trasandino (1,573).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Provincial Osorno have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeats; Trasandino have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Linares Unido(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Concón National(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Lota Schwager(away) | 2-2 | Segunda División |
| Jul 4, 2026 | General Velásquez(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Colchagua(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colchagua(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Concón National(away) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Linares Unido(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | General Velásquez(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | General Velásquez(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Provincial Osorno win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Trasandino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2025 | Trasandino 3-1 Provincial Osorno | Segunda División |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Provincial Osorno 3-1 Trasandino | Segunda División |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Trasandino 4-2 Provincial Osorno | Segunda División |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Provincial Osorno 1-0 Trasandino | Segunda División |
| Jul 16, 2023 | Trasandino 1-1 Provincial Osorno | Segunda División |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Provincial Osorno 1-2 Trasandino | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Trasandino vs Provincial Osorno on Aug 3, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Provincial Osorno score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Trasandino score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provincial Osorno | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Trasandino | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Provincial Osorno sit 1st in Segunda División (24 points from 12 matches) and Trasandino sit 7th (18 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 24 |
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Trasandino | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Provincial Osorno vs Trasandino?
- The Footlab model makes Provincial Osorno the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Trasandino.
- Where and when is Provincial Osorno vs Trasandino played?
- Provincial Osorno vs Trasandino is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.