Purmersteijn vs Sparta Nijkerk: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Purmersteijn, Purmerend
The Footlab model makes Purmersteijn the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Sparta Nijkerk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Purmersteijn vs Sparta Nijkerk?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Purmersteijn (1,706) and Sparta Nijkerk (1,800).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Purmersteijn have 2 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Sparta Nijkerk have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sportlust '46(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | VV Scherpenzeel(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Jul 5, 2025 | FC Volendam(home) | 1-7 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Sportlust '46(home) | 0-2 | KNVB Beker |
| Jul 19, 2023 | ADO '20(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | TEC(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sportlust '46(home) | 3-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 30, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 1-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 27, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(home) | 0-3 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Purmersteijn win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Sparta Nijkerk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2017 | Sparta Nijkerk 3-0 Purmersteijn | KNVB Beker |
Last archived meeting: Sparta Nijkerk vs Purmersteijn on Aug 19, 2017
How many goals should we expect?
Purmersteijn score 1.2 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 6; Sparta Nijkerk score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purmersteijn | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0 | 4/6 | 4/6 |
| Sparta Nijkerk | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Purmersteijn sit 5th in Derde Divisie (4 points from 2 matches) and Sparta Nijkerk sit 14th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Purmersteijn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Sparta Nijkerk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Purmersteijn vs Sparta Nijkerk?
- The Footlab model makes Purmersteijn the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Sparta Nijkerk.
- Where and when is Purmersteijn vs Sparta Nijkerk played?
- Purmersteijn vs Sparta Nijkerk is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Purmersteijn, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.