Rijnvogels vs Noordwijk: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Kooltuin, Katwijk aan Zee
The Footlab model makes Rijnvogels the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Noordwijk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rijnvogels vs Noordwijk?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Rijnvogels (1,790) and Noordwijk (1,797).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rijnvogels have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Noordwijk have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Blauw Geel(away) | 0-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gemert(home) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 1-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(home) | 2-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 30, 2026 | DVS 33 Ermelo(away) | 2-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Achilles Veen(away) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Blauw Geel(home) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | De Treffers(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | TOGB(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | Kloetinge(away) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Rijnvogels win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Noordwijk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Noordwijk 4-1 Rijnvogels | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Rijnvogels 1-0 Noordwijk | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
Last archived meeting: Noordwijk vs Rijnvogels on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rijnvogels score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Noordwijk score 2.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rijnvogels | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Noordwijk | 2.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rijnvogels sit 12th in Derde Divisie (2 points from 2 matches) and Noordwijk sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noordwijk | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Rijnvogels | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rijnvogels vs Noordwijk?
- The Footlab model makes Rijnvogels the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Noordwijk.
- Where and when is Rijnvogels vs Noordwijk played?
- Rijnvogels vs Noordwijk is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Kooltuin, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.