Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeaguePlayoff roundKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Częstochowa
The Footlab model makes Raków Częstochowa the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for HNK Hajduk Split. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Raków Częstochowa (2,031) and HNK Hajduk Split (2,008).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Raków Częstochowa have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; HNK Hajduk Split have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Hammarby FF(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hammarby FF(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Slask Wroclaw(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-1 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 2-2 | HNL |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(away) | 5-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Raków Częstochowa win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 HNK Hajduk Split win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Raków Częstochowa | UEFA Europa Conference League |
Last archived meeting: HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa on Aug 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Raków Częstochowa score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Hajduk Split score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raków Częstochowa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split?
- The Footlab model makes Raków Częstochowa the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for HNK Hajduk Split.
- Where and when is Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split played?
- Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split is played on August 27, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.