Match

Rathfriland vs Ards: prediction and stats

League CupRound of 32Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Iveagh Park, Rathfriland

RathfrilandArds

The Footlab AI model makes Rathfriland the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Ards. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rathfriland wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Rathfriland vs Ards?

A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Rathfriland (1,357) and Ards (1,394).

40%24%36%
Rathfriland winDrawArds win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Rathfriland vs Ards

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Rathfriland

4-3-3
  1. RRuairi Fitzpatrick
  2. EE. Rooney
  3. DD. Tate
  1. AAndrew Kilmartin
  2. 23J. Corbett
  3. MMaurice Jack Chambers
  1. JJ. Barbour
  2. DDaniel Devlin
  3. JJ. Cooper
  4. BB. Johnston
  1. SS. Maguire

Ards

Not enough data to predict the Ards lineup.

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:02 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rathfriland have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Ards have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Rathfriland
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 9, 2026Armagh City(home)2-1Championship
Oct 3, 2026H&W Welders(away)3-1Championship
Sep 25, 2026Warrenpoint Town(home)0-2Championship
Sep 19, 2026Queen's University(home)1-0Championship
Sep 12, 2026Ards(away)0-1Championship
Ards
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 9, 2026Newington Youth(away)2-0Championship
Oct 3, 2026Ballinamallard United(away)1-1Championship
Sep 26, 2026Strabane Athletic(home)0-1Championship
Sep 19, 2026Moyola Park(away)0-0Championship
Sep 12, 2026Rathfriland(home)1-0Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

In the last meeting: 0 Rathfriland wins, 0 draws, 1 Ards win.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 12, 2026Ards 1-0 RathfrilandChampionship

Last archived meeting: Ards vs Rathfriland on Sep 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Rathfriland score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ards score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Rathfriland1.31.737/159/15
Ards1.11.347/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Rathfriland vs Ards?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Rathfriland vs Ards?
The Footlab AI model makes Rathfriland the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Ards.
Where and when is Rathfriland vs Ards played?
Rathfriland vs Ards is played on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Iveagh Park, in the League Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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