Rayon Sports vs Etincelles: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Kigali Pelé Stadium, Kigali
The Footlab model makes Rayon Sports the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Etincelles. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayon Sports vs Etincelles?
Rayon Sports starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,842 vs 1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayon Sports have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Etincelles have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 2-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Jamus(away) | 3-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(away) | 1-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Marines(away) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 10, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 7, 2026 | Al Merreikh(away) | 1-4 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rayon Sports win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Etincelles win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Etincelles 1-1 Rayon Sports | National Soccer League |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Rayon Sports 1-1 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Etincelles 1-2 Rayon Sports | National Soccer League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Rayon Sports 1-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Apr 4, 2024 | Rayon Sports 1-3 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Etincelles 1-1 Rayon Sports | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Etincelles vs Rayon Sports on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayon Sports score 1.4 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Etincelles score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayon Sports | 1.4 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Etincelles | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayon Sports sit 4th in National Soccer League (56 points from 34 matches) and Etincelles sit 13th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rayon Sports | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 40 | 30 | 56 |
| 13 | Etincelles | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 32 | 40 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayon Sports vs Etincelles?
- The Footlab model makes Rayon Sports the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Etincelles.
- Where and when is Rayon Sports vs Etincelles played?
- Rayon Sports vs Etincelles is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Kigali Pelé Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.