Etincelles vs Police: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueMatchday 12Kick-off on December 8, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 30% for Etincelles, 39% for a draw, 31% for Police. The most likely score is 0-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,188 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etincelles vs Police?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Etincelles (1,589) and Police (1,649).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Etincelles vs Police
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Etincelles
Not enough data to predict the Etincelles lineup.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 05:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etincelles have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Police have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | APR(home) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Marines(home) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Marines(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Bugesera(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Al Merreikh(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Musanze(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Gorilla(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Etincelles win, 4 draws, 1 Police win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Police 1-1 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Etincelles 0-1 Police | National Soccer League |
| May 27, 2025 | Police 3-3 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Etincelles 0-0 Police | National Soccer League |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Police 1-1 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Etincelles 1-0 Police | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Etincelles score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Police score 0.5 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 18% probability of over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etincelles | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Police | 0.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 3/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etincelles sit 16th in National Soccer League (7 points from 7 matches) and Police sit 14th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Police | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| 16 | Etincelles | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Etincelles vs Police?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etincelles vs Police?
- The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 30% for Etincelles, 39% for a draw, 31% for Police.
- Where and when is Etincelles vs Police played?
- Etincelles vs Police is played on December 8, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 18% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.