Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 241-point Elo edge (2,340 vs 2,099).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Real Sociedad have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Real Madrid win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Real Sociedad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| May 24, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Real Madrid 4-4 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Real Sociedad 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 6th in La Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 17th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad played?
- Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad is played on August 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.