Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 269-point Elo edge (2,352 vs 2,084).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 15A. Güler
- 16I. Konaté
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 11Pablo Durán
- 6I. Moriba
- 17Javi Rueda
- 14Aleix Febas
- 22Javi Galán
- 18Yoel Lago
- 3Marcos Alonso
- 15Álvaro Núñez
- 13I. Radu
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Celta Vigo have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Elche(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Real Madrid wins, 0 draws, 1 Celta Vigo win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Real Madrid 0-2 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| May 4, 2025 | Real Madrid 3-2 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Real Madrid 5-2 Celta Vigo | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Real Madrid 4-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 4th in La Liga (18 points from 8 matches) and Celta Vigo sit 9th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
A question about Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo played?
- Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.