Real Oruro vs Bolívar: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónApertura - 16Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Bolívar the favourite at 60%, against 19% for a draw and 21% for Real Oruro. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Oruro vs Bolívar?
Bolívar is a heavy favourite: 1,821 Elo points against 1,497 — a 324-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Oruro have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Bolívar have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Always Ready(away) | 2-4 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oriente Petrolero(home) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Real Tomayapo(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 4, 2026 | ABB(away) | 1-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Independiente Petrolero(home) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 1-3 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aurora(away) | 4-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Oriente Petrolero(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Real Oruro win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Bolívar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Bolívar 5-2 Real Oruro | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Real Oruro 3-1 Bolívar | Primera División |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Bolívar 3-1 Real Oruro | Primera División |
How many goals should we expect?
Real Oruro score 1.8 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Bolívar score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oruro | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| Bolívar | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Oruro sit 14th in Primera División (5 points from 6 matches) and Bolívar sit 4th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bolívar | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 16 | 30 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 14 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 38 | 17 |
| 14 | Real Oruro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Oruro vs Bolívar?
- The Footlab model makes Bolívar the favourite at 60%, against 19% for a draw and 21% for Real Oruro.
- Where and when is Real Oruro vs Bolívar played?
- Real Oruro vs Bolívar is played on August 23, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC), in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.