Real Sociedad III vs Amurrio Club: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo José Luis Orbegozo, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Amurrio Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad III vs Amurrio Club?
Real Sociedad III starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,798 vs 1,671).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad III have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Amurrio Club have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Durango(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 5-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2022 | Barakaldo(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 13, 2022 | Uritarra(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 9, 2022 | San Ignacio(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Tolosa(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad III score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Amurrio Club score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad III | 1.7 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Amurrio Club | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Sociedad III | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 39 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad III vs Amurrio Club?
- The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Amurrio Club.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad III vs Amurrio Club played?
- Real Sociedad III vs Amurrio Club is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo José Luis Orbegozo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.