Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Aurrerá Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
Leioa starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,836 vs 1,700).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Aurrerá Vitoria have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Touring(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Leioa win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Aurrerá Vitoria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Leioa 3-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Leioa 3-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Aurrerá Vitoria 1-2 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Aurrerá Vitoria vs Leioa on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leioa sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (61 points from 34 matches) and Aurrerá Vitoria sit 8th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
| 8 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
- The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Aurrerá Vitoria.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria played?
- Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.