Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
Super CupSemi-finalsKick-off on February 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,255 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 246-point Elo edge (2,372 vs 2,126).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 24L. Sučić
- 9O. Óskarsson
- 7Barrenetxea
- 4Jon Gorrotxategi
- 18Carlos Soler
- 11Gonçalo Guedes
- 6Jon Martín
- 2J. Aramburu
- 19M. Sarr
- 5Zubeldia
- 1Álex Remiro
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 5J. Bellingham
- 25Y. Diomande
- 20Bernardo Silva
- 15A. Güler
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 4D. Huijsen
- 16I. Konaté
- 8F. Valverde
- 1T. Courtois
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 08:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Real Madrid have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Levante(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Lillestrom(away) | 6-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Nov 4, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Real Sociedad wins, 1 draw, 5 Real Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| May 24, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Real Madrid 4-4 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid | Copa del Rey |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad on Aug 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid played?
- Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid is played on February 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Reale Arena, in the Super Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.