Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
Super CupSemi-finalsKick-off on February 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 241-point Elo edge (2,339 vs 2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Real Madrid have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Real Sociedad win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Real Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| May 24, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Real Madrid 4-4 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Real Sociedad 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid played?
- Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid is played on February 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Reale Arena, in the Super Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.