Match

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats

Super CupSemi-finalsKick-off on February 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Camp Nou, Barcelona

BarcelonaAtletico Madrid

The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1. If Barcelona wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?

Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (2,460 vs 2,296).

61%22%17%
Barcelona winDrawAtletico Madrid win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
  1. 11Raphinha
  1. 10Lamine Yamal
  2. 8Pedri
  3. 17A. Gordon
  4. 20Dani Olmo
  5. 16Rodri
  1. 18Gerard Martín
  2. 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
  3. 12X. Espart
  4. 2João Cancelo
  1. 1Joan García

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2
  1. 15J. David
  2. 19J. Álvarez
  1. 20G. Simeone
  2. 8Pablo Barrios
  3. 10Álex Baena
  4. 23M. Hjulmand
  1. 17D. Hancko
  2. 14Marcos Llorente
  3. 22Álex Grimaldo
  4. 18Marc Pubill
  1. 13J. Oblak

Computed on October 21, 2026 at 04:31 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barcelona have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Barcelona
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 20, 2026Paris Saint Germain(away)2-4UEFA Champions League
Oct 17, 2026Real Betis(away)5-2La Liga
Oct 13, 2026Galatasaray(away)4-1UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Getafe(home)3-0La Liga
Sep 19, 2026Sevilla(away)3-1La Liga
Atletico Madrid
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 20, 2026VfB Stuttgart(away)1-1UEFA Champions League
Oct 17, 2026Espanyol(away)1-0La Liga
Oct 13, 2026Manchester United(home)2-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Alaves(away)2-1La Liga
Sep 20, 2026Real Madrid(home)2-1La Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Barcelona wins, 0 draws, 2 Atletico Madrid wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 14, 2026Atletico Madrid 1-2 BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
Apr 8, 2026Barcelona 0-2 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
Apr 4, 2026Atletico Madrid 1-2 BarcelonaLa Liga
Mar 3, 2026Barcelona 3-0 Atletico MadridCopa del Rey
Feb 12, 2026Atletico Madrid 4-0 BarcelonaCopa del Rey
Dec 2, 2025Barcelona 3-1 Atletico MadridLa Liga

Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona on Apr 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Barcelona score 3.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Barcelona3.81.3410/1513/15
Atletico Madrid1.81.159/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Atletico Madrid.
Where and when is Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid played?
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid is played on February 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Nou, in the Super Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Barcelona and Atletico Madrid

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