Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
Super CupSemi-finalsKick-off on February 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Camp Nou, Barcelona
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (2,389 vs 2,241).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barcelona have 11 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Elche(away) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al Ahly(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Barcelona win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Atletico Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Barcelona 3-0 Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 4-0 Barcelona | Copa del Rey |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Barcelona 3-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona on Apr 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barcelona score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid is played on February 2, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Nou, in the Super Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.