Real vs Farroupilha: prediction and stats
Gaúcho - 3Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Real SC, Queluz
The Footlab model makes Real the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Farroupilha. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real vs Farroupilha?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Real (1,606) and Farroupilha (1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real have 0 wins, 3 draws and 12 defeats; Farroupilha have 3, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2025 | Lajeadense(away) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Novo Hamburgo(home) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Passo Fundo(home) | 1-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | União RS(away) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Gramadense(home) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Bagé(home) | 1-2 | Copa Gaúcha |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Brasil DE Pelotas(away) | 0-4 | Copa Gaúcha |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Guarany de Bagé(home) | 1-1 | Copa Gaúcha |
| May 27, 2026 | Guarany de Bagé(away) | 0-0 | Copa Gaúcha |
| May 21, 2026 | Brasil DE Pelotas(home) | 0-1 | Copa Gaúcha |
How many goals should we expect?
Real score 0.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Farroupilha score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Farroupilha | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 6/12 | 4/12 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real vs Farroupilha?
- The Footlab model makes Real the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Farroupilha.
- Where and when is Real vs Farroupilha played?
- Real vs Farroupilha is played on September 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Real SC, in the Gaúcho - 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.