São Paulo RS vs FBC Riograndense RS: prediction and stats
Gaúcho - 3Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Aldo Dapuzzo, Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab model makes São Paulo RS the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for FBC Riograndense RS. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win São Paulo RS vs FBC Riograndense RS?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate São Paulo RS (1,563) and FBC Riograndense RS (1,612).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, São Paulo RS have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; FBC Riograndense RS have 5, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | Apafut(home) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Apafut(away) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | São Gabriel(away) | 5-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | SC Rio Grande(home) | 1-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | FBC Riograndense RS(away) | 1-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | SC Rio Grande(away) | 1-2 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | São Gabriel(home) | 8-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | São Paulo RS(home) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | São Paulo RS(away) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | São Gabriel(away) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 São Paulo RS win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 FBC Riograndense RS win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | FBC Riograndense RS 0-1 São Paulo RS | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | São Paulo RS 0-0 FBC Riograndense RS | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | FBC Riograndense RS 4-1 São Paulo RS | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | São Paulo RS 0-1 FBC Riograndense RS | Gaúcho - 3 |
Last archived meeting: FBC Riograndense RS vs São Paulo RS on Oct 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
São Paulo RS score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; FBC Riograndense RS score 1.4 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo RS | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| FBC Riograndense RS | 1.4 | 0.6 | 7 | 4/14 | 4/14 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for São Paulo RS vs FBC Riograndense RS?
- The Footlab model makes São Paulo RS the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for FBC Riograndense RS.
- Where and when is São Paulo RS vs FBC Riograndense RS played?
- São Paulo RS vs FBC Riograndense RS is played on September 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Aldo Dapuzzo, in the Gaúcho - 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.