Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns: prediction and stats
Premier Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC)King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium, Durban, KN
The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Richards Bay. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns?
Mamelodi Sundowns is a heavy favourite: 2,029 Elo points against 1,710 — a 319-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Richards Bay have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Mamelodi Sundowns have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Durban City(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Chippa United(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Polokwane City(home) | 1-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| May 23, 2026 | Magesi(away) | 0-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Sekhukhune United(home) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Golden Arrows(home) | 0-1 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Marumo Gallants(home) | 2-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | TS Galaxy(away) | 3-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Polokwane City(home) | 3-2 | 8 Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Richards Bay win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Mamelodi Sundowns win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Richards Bay 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 Richards Bay | 8 Cup |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Richards Bay 0-2 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Richards Bay score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richards Bay | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Richards Bay sit 11th in Premier Soccer League (2 points from 3 matches) and Mamelodi Sundowns sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Richards Bay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns?
- The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Richards Bay.
- Where and when is Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns played?
- Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns is played on October 17, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC) at King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium, in the Premier Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.