Rijnvogels vs Groene Ster: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Kooltuin, Katwijk aan Zee
The Footlab model makes Rijnvogels the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rijnvogels vs Groene Ster?
Rijnvogels starts as the favourite with a 203-point Elo edge (1,776 vs 1,573).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rijnvogels have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Groene Ster have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Blauw Geel(away) | 0-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gemert(home) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 1-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(home) | 2-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 30, 2026 | DVS 33 Ermelo(away) | 2-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Roosendaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | ASWH(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | TOGB(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 9, 2026 | Kloetinge(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Rijnvogels win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Groene Ster win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Rijnvogels 3-1 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Groene Ster 3-2 Rijnvogels | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Aug 17, 2016 | Groene Ster 0-2 Rijnvogels | KNVB Beker |
Last archived meeting: Rijnvogels vs Groene Ster on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rijnvogels score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Groene Ster score 1.2 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rijnvogels | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Groene Ster | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rijnvogels sit 12th in Derde Divisie (2 points from 2 matches) and Groene Ster sit 17th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rijnvogels | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 | Groene Ster | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rijnvogels vs Groene Ster?
- The Footlab model makes Rijnvogels the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Rijnvogels vs Groene Ster played?
- Rijnvogels vs Groene Ster is played on October 3, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Kooltuin, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.