Rotherham vs Crewe: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)AESSEAL New York Stadium, Rotherham, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Crewe the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Rotherham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rotherham vs Crewe?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Rotherham (1,697) and Crewe (1,780).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rotherham have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Crewe have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | York(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chester(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Rotherham win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Crewe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2024 | Rotherham 2-1 Crewe | League Cup |
| Jul 23, 2022 | Crewe 1-2 Rotherham | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 29, 2022 | Crewe 0-2 Rotherham | League One |
| Jan 4, 2022 | Crewe 2-4 Rotherham | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Rotherham 1-1 Crewe | League One |
| Nov 4, 2017 | Crewe 2-1 Rotherham | FA Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Rotherham score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Crewe score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Crewe | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rotherham sit 17th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Crewe sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Crewe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rotherham vs Crewe?
- The Footlab model makes Crewe the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Rotherham.
- Where and when is Rotherham vs Crewe played?
- Rotherham vs Crewe is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at AESSEAL New York Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.