Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Memorial Stadium, Bristol, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Exeter City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Bristol Rovers (1,754) and Exeter City (1,766).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol Rovers have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Exeter City have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Bristol Rovers win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Exeter City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025 | Bristol Rovers 1-2 Exeter City | League One |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Exeter City 3-1 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Bristol Rovers 2-3 Exeter City | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Exeter City 0-1 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Bristol Rovers 0-1 Exeter City | League One |
| Dec 29, 2022 | Bristol Rovers 3-4 Exeter City | League One |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City on Apr 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol Rovers sit 10th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Exeter City sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Exeter City.
- Where and when is Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City played?
- Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Memorial Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.