Swindon Town vs Accrington ST: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Accrington ST. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Swindon Town starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,793 vs 1,676).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swindon Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Accrington ST have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bury(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Swindon Town win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Accrington ST win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Swindon Town 2-2 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Accrington ST 4-0 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Swindon Town 0-0 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Accrington ST 2-2 Swindon Town | FA Cup |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Accrington ST 2-2 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Mar 12, 2024 | Swindon Town 1-2 Accrington ST | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Swindon Town vs Accrington ST on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Accrington ST score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Accrington ST | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swindon Town sit 7th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Accrington ST sit 19th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Accrington ST | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
- The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Accrington ST.
- Where and when is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST played?
- Swindon Town vs Accrington ST is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The County Ground, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.