Rouen vs Aubagne: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stade Robert Diochon, Le Petit-Quevilly
The Footlab model makes Rouen the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Aubagne. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rouen vs Aubagne?
Rouen starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,861 vs 1,705).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rouen have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Aubagne have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Quevilly(home) | 3-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Orleans(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Boulogne(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Caen(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bastia(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(home) | 0-3 | Ligue 3 |
| May 15, 2026 | Caen(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Rouen win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aubagne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Rouen 3-1 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Aubagne 1-1 Rouen | Ligue 3 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Rouen 0-1 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Aubagne 2-1 Rouen | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Rouen score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aubagne score 0.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rouen | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Aubagne | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rouen sit 2nd in Ligue 3 (7 points from 3 matches) and Aubagne sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rouen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 18 | Aubagne | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rouen vs Aubagne?
- The Footlab model makes Rouen the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Aubagne.
- Where and when is Rouen vs Aubagne played?
- Rouen vs Aubagne is played on September 19, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Robert Diochon, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.