Ryazan vs Avangard Kursk: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 26Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Central'nyj Sportivn'yj Kompleks, Ryazan'
The Footlab model makes Ryazan the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Avangard Kursk. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ryazan vs Avangard Kursk?
Ryazan starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,713 vs 1,610).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ryazan have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Avangard Kursk have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Orel(away) | 2-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rodina Moskva III(home) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kvant(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Arsenal Tula II(away) | 5-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk(away) | 1-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zenit Penza(home) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kristall MEZ(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arsenal Tula II(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Strogino(home) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ryazan win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Avangard Kursk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Avangard Kursk 0-0 Ryazan | Second League - Group 3 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | Avangard Kursk 3-0 Ryazan | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 27, 2022 | Ryazan 1-1 Avangard Kursk | Second League - Group 3 |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Ryazan 1-0 Avangard Kursk | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2021 | Avangard Kursk 0-3 Ryazan | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jun 15, 2021 | Avangard Kursk 2-0 Ryazan | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Avangard Kursk vs Ryazan on Jun 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ryazan score 1.5 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Avangard Kursk score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryazan | 1.5 | 0.5 | 10 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
| Avangard Kursk | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ryazan sit 7th in Second League - Group 3 (34 points from 19 matches) and Avangard Kursk sit 8th (27 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ryazan | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 12 | 34 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ryazan vs Avangard Kursk?
- The Footlab model makes Ryazan the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Avangard Kursk.
- Where and when is Ryazan vs Avangard Kursk played?
- Ryazan vs Avangard Kursk is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Central'nyj Sportivn'yj Kompleks, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.