Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 1, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Heart Health Park, Sacramento, California
The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Las Vegas Lights. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
Sacramento Republic starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,805 vs 1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sacramento Republic have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Las Vegas Lights have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lexington(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting JAX(home) | 5-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lexington(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brooklyn(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Miami FC(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sacramento Republic win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Las Vegas Lights win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights 1-1 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Las Vegas Lights 0-2 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Sacramento Republic 4-0 Las Vegas Lights | USL League One Cup |
| May 18, 2025 | Sacramento Republic 5-0 Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Las Vegas Lights 0-0 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Las Vegas Lights 2-1 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sacramento Republic score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Las Vegas Lights score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Las Vegas Lights | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sacramento Republic sit 6th in USL Championship (16 points from 11 matches) and Las Vegas Lights sit 10th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 31 |
| 8 | Las Vegas Lights | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
- The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Las Vegas Lights.
- Where and when is Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights played?
- Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights is played on October 1, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Heart Health Park, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots