Şagadam vs Arkadag: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Türkmenbaşy Stadium, Türkmenbaşy
The Footlab AI model makes Arkadag the favourite at 89%, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Şagadam. The most likely score is 0-3.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Şagadam vs Arkadag?
Arkadag is a heavy favourite: 1,923 Elo points against 1,336, a 587-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Şagadam vs Arkadag
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Şagadam
Not enough data to predict the Şagadam lineup.
Arkadag
5-4-1- 7A. Annadurdyýew
- 9R. Myratberdiýew
- 27Y. Gurbanov
- 13V. Ballakov
- 10R. Khozhaev
- 12Y. Mammedov
- 20A. Sapargulyyev
- 5A. Bashimov
- 2G. Annagulyýew
- 4M. Saparow
- 1R. Ahallyyev
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 02:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Şagadam have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Arkadag have 15, 0 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nebitci(away) | 0-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Merw(home) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(away) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ahal(home) | 2-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(home) | 3-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(away) | 1-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Muharraq(home) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nebitci(away) | 4-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(away) | 5-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ahal(home) | 2-1 | Ýokary Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Şagadam wins, 0 draws, 6 Arkadag wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Şagadam 1-4 Arkadag | Ýokary Liga |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Arkadag 3-2 Şagadam | Ýokary Liga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Arkadag 2-0 Şagadam | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Şagadam 1-4 Arkadag | Ýokary Liga |
| May 17, 2025 | Şagadam 1-4 Arkadag | Ýokary Liga |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Arkadag 4-0 Şagadam | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Şagadam score 0.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arkadag score 4.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şagadam | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Arkadag | 4.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Şagadam sit 4th in Ýokary Liga (22 points from 21 matches) and Arkadag sit 1st (72 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 12 | 72 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 32 | 22 |
A question about Şagadam vs Arkadag?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Şagadam vs Arkadag?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arkadag the favourite at 89%, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Şagadam.
- Where and when is Şagadam vs Arkadag played?
- Şagadam vs Arkadag is played on October 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Türkmenbaşy Stadium, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.