Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu: prediction and stats
Copa RioSemi-finalsKick-off on September 2, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Estádio Lourival Gomes de Almeida, Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Sampaio Corrêa RJ the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Nova Iguaçu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Sampaio Corrêa RJ (1,739) and Nova Iguaçu (1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sampaio Corrêa RJ have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Nova Iguaçu have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Nova Iguaçu(away) | 0-2 | Copa Rio |
| Aug 12, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(home) | 1-0 | Copa Rio |
| Aug 5, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(away) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Resende(home) | 2-0 | Copa Rio |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Resende(away) | 1-0 | Copa Rio |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Sampaio Corrêa RJ(home) | 2-0 | Copa Rio |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Olaria(home) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Olaria(away) | 1-0 | Copa Rio |
| Jul 22, 2026 | América RJ(home) | 1-1 | Copa Rio |
| Jul 15, 2026 | América RJ(away) | 1-0 | Copa Rio |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sampaio Corrêa RJ win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Nova Iguaçu win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Nova Iguaçu 2-0 Sampaio Corrêa RJ | Copa Rio |
| May 16, 2026 | Nova Iguaçu 2-1 Sampaio Corrêa RJ | Serie D |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-0 Nova Iguaçu | Serie D |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Nova Iguaçu 2-0 Sampaio Corrêa RJ | Carioca - 1 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-1 Nova Iguaçu | Carioca - 1 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-3 Nova Iguaçu | Carioca - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Nova Iguaçu vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ on Aug 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sampaio Corrêa RJ score 0.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nova Iguaçu score 0.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Nova Iguaçu | 0.8 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
- The Footlab model makes Sampaio Corrêa RJ the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Nova Iguaçu.
- Where and when is Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu played?
- Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu is played on September 2, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Estádio Lourival Gomes de Almeida, in the Copa Rio.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.