Shturmi vs Gareji: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 27Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Shturmi the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Gareji. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shturmi vs Gareji?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Shturmi (1,490) and Gareji (1,551).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shturmi have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Gareji have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Samtredia(home) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sioni(away) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Merani Martvili(home) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Samtredia(away) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | West Georgia(away) | 2-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(home) | 3-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(home) | 0-2 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telavi(away) | 0-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 1-4 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Basa(away) | 2-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Shturmi win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Gareji win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Gareji 0-0 Shturmi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Shturmi 1-2 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Gareji 5-1 Shturmi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Shturmi 1-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| May 24, 2024 | Gareji 4-1 Shturmi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Shturmi 1-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Shturmi score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gareji score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shturmi | 0.9 | 0.7 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Gareji | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shturmi sit 3rd in Erovnuli Liga 2 (33 points from 22 matches) and Gareji sit 1st (43 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
| 3 | Shturmi | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shturmi vs Gareji?
- The Footlab model makes Shturmi the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Gareji.
- Where and when is Shturmi vs Gareji played?
- Shturmi vs Gareji is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.