San Marcial vs Alfaro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente, Lardero
The Footlab AI model makes San Marcial the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Alfaro. The most likely score is 1-1. If San Marcial wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 3,886 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 30, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Marcial vs Alfaro?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate San Marcial (1,744) and Alfaro (1,787).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for San Marcial vs Alfaro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
San Marcial
Not enough data to predict the San Marcial lineup.
Alfaro
Not enough data to predict the Alfaro lineup.
Computed on October 30, 2026 at 05:44 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Marcial have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Alfaro have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Pradejón(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Yagüe(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cenicero(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | River Ebro(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Berceo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Varea(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Vianés(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
San Marcial score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Alfaro score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcial | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Alfaro | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Marcial sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (12 points from 7 matches) and Alfaro sit 3rd (16 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Alfaro | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 12 |
A question about San Marcial vs Alfaro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Marcial vs Alfaro?
- The Footlab AI model makes San Marcial the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Alfaro.
- Where and when is San Marcial vs Alfaro played?
- San Marcial vs Alfaro is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.