Sânmartin vs Minaur Baia Mare: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 8Group 8 - 7Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Comunal Sânmartin, Sânmartin
The Footlab model makes Minaur Baia Mare the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Sânmartin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sânmartin vs Minaur Baia Mare?
Minaur Baia Mare starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,598 vs 1,480).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sânmartin have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Minaur Baia Mare have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Crişul Sântandrei(home) | 0-0 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bihorul Beiuş(away) | 1-0 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | Unirea Dej(away) | 1-0 | Liga III - Serie 8 |
| May 8, 2026 | Viitorul Cluj(home) | 3-0 | Liga III - Serie 8 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Sighetu Marmaţiei(away) | 0-0 | Liga III - Serie 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Corvinul Hunedoara(home) | 2-3 | Cupa României |
| Aug 12, 2026 | CSM Satu Mare(home) | 5-0 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sighetu Marmaţiei(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| May 22, 2026 | Metalurgistul Cugir(away) | 3-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Viitorul Arad(home) | 2-0 | Liga III - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sânmartin win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Minaur Baia Mare win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Sânmartin 0-3 Minaur Baia Mare | Liga III - Serie 8 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Minaur Baia Mare 3-1 Sânmartin | Liga III - Serie 8 |
| May 3, 2024 | Minaur Baia Mare 2-0 Sânmartin | Liga III - Serie 10 |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Sânmartin 2-2 Minaur Baia Mare | Liga III - Serie 10 |
| Nov 17, 2023 | Sânmartin 2-1 Minaur Baia Mare | Liga III - Serie 10 |
| Sep 15, 2023 | Minaur Baia Mare 1-1 Sânmartin | Liga III - Serie 10 |
Last archived meeting: Sânmartin vs Minaur Baia Mare on Feb 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sânmartin score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Minaur Baia Mare score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sânmartin | 1.4 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Minaur Baia Mare | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sânmartin sit 2nd in Liga III - Serie 8 (45 points from 6 matches) and Minaur Baia Mare sit 1st (47 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minaur Baia Mare | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 27 | 47 |
| 2 | Sânmartin | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sânmartin vs Minaur Baia Mare?
- The Footlab model makes Minaur Baia Mare the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Sânmartin.
- Where and when is Sânmartin vs Minaur Baia Mare played?
- Sânmartin vs Minaur Baia Mare is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Comunal Sânmartin, in the Liga III - Serie 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.