Santa Clara vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Santa Clara (2,057) and Rio Ave (1,978).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Clara have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Rio Ave have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Santa Clara win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Rio Ave win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Santa Clara 0-2 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Rio Ave 1-1 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Rio Ave 1-1 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Santa Clara 1-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-2 Santa Clara | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 17, 2023 | Santa Clara 0-2 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Santa Clara vs Rio Ave on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Clara score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Clara sit 6th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Rio Ave sit 17th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Santa Clara vs Rio Ave played?
- Santa Clara vs Rio Ave is played on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio de São Miguel, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.