Rio Ave vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
The Footlab AI model makes Rio Ave the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rio Ave wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Rio Ave (2,040) and Casa Pia (1,998).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rio Ave vs Casa Pia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 80S. Clemmensen
- 20João Tomé
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 17M. Vrousai
- 23F. Petrasso
- 32Vitor Hugo
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 80L. Ofori
- 16Silvi
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 77B. Pauwels
- 18Geraldes
- 43David Sousa
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 3Kaly
- 95Ivan Mandić
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 11:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rio Ave have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Casa Pia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Louletano(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Rio Ave wins, 2 draws, 1 Casa Pia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Casa Pia 1-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Rio Ave 3-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Casa Pia 2-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-3 Rio Ave | Taça de Portugal |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Rio Ave 2-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Rio Ave score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rio Ave sit 14th in Primeira Liga (7 points from 8 matches) and Casa Pia sit 17th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 4 |
A question about Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rio Ave the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Rio Ave vs Casa Pia played?
- Rio Ave vs Casa Pia is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.