Estoril vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
The Footlab model makes Estoril the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estoril vs Arouca?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Estoril (2,004) and Arouca (2,062).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estoril have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Arouca have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Estoril win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Arouca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Arouca 3-2 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Estoril 4-3 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Arouca 1-1 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Estoril 4-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Estoril 1-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2023 | Arouca 4-3 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estoril score 0.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Arouca | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estoril sit 13th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Arouca sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Arouca?
- The Footlab model makes Estoril the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Estoril vs Arouca played?
- Estoril vs Arouca is played on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.