Santanyí vs Mercadal: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Santanyí, Santanyí (Mallorca
The Footlab model makes Santanyí the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Mercadal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santanyí vs Mercadal?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Santanyí (1,735) and Mercadal (1,746).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santanyí have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Mercadal have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Felanitx(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Portmany(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rotlet Molinar(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Collerense(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alcúdia(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mallorca II(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 1-6 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Platges Calvià(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Formentera(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Santanyí win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Mercadal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Mercadal 1-0 Santanyí | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Santanyí 3-0 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Mercadal 3-2 Santanyí | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Santanyí 2-0 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Santanyí 1-0 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Mercadal 2-1 Santanyí | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
How many goals should we expect?
Santanyí score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mercadal score 0.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santanyí | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Mercadal | 0.7 | 1.9 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santanyí sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (41 points from 34 matches) and Mercadal sit 8th (49 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mercadal | 34 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 44 | 49 |
| 12 | Santanyí | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 42 | 58 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santanyí vs Mercadal?
- The Footlab model makes Santanyí the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Mercadal.
- Where and when is Santanyí vs Mercadal played?
- Santanyí vs Mercadal is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Santanyí, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.