Santiago Morning vs Provincial Ovalle: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRelegation Group - 4Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de La Pintana, Santiago de Chile
The Footlab model makes Santiago Morning the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Provincial Ovalle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santiago Morning vs Provincial Ovalle?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Santiago Morning (1,566) and Provincial Ovalle (1,511).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santiago Morning have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Provincial Ovalle have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lota Schwager(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Colina(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Real San Joaquín(away) | 2-2 | Segunda División |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Deportes Rengo(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Linares Unido(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Real San Joaquín(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | General Velásquez(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Colina(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Santiago City(away) | 2-3 | Segunda División |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Real San Joaquín(home) | 1-6 | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Santiago Morning score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Provincial Ovalle score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Morning | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Provincial Ovalle | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santiago Morning sit 13th in Segunda División (10 points from 12 matches) and Provincial Ovalle sit 14th (6 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Santiago Morning | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Provincial Ovalle | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 3 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santiago Morning vs Provincial Ovalle?
- The Footlab model makes Santiago Morning the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Provincial Ovalle.
- Where and when is Santiago Morning vs Provincial Ovalle played?
- Santiago Morning vs Provincial Ovalle is played on August 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.