Sarakinos vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4Group 4 - 4Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sarakinos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarakinos vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou?
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (1,670 vs 1,488).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarakinos have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Kozani(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Eordaikos(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Evosmou(home) | 2-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Akrites Sykeon(away) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Asteras Kard.(home) | 6-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Elassona(away) | 3-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| May 14, 2026 | Panthrakikos(home) | 3-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| May 10, 2026 | Apollon Pontou(away) | 2-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| May 3, 2026 | Elassona(home) | 1-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Panthrakikos(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Promotion Group |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Sarakinos win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Sarakinos 0-4 Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou 1-0 Sarakinos | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Sarakinos vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sarakinos score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarakinos | 1.6 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 2.2 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarakinos vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou?
- The Footlab model makes Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sarakinos.
- Where and when is Sarakinos vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou played?
- Sarakinos vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.