Sarnese vs Paganese: result 2-1 and analysis
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Felice Squitieri, Sarno
Full time
What was the result of Sarnese vs Paganese?
Sarnese won 2-1 on October 4, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 16′D. MaggioSarnese
- 39′F. AkammaduPaganese
- 48′F. MarquezSarnese
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Sarnese win at 44%: prediction correct. Most likely score announced: 1-1. Actual score: 2-1.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarnese have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Paganese have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ossese(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Venafro(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Afragolese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Budoni(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Trastevere(away) | 6-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Afragolese(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Latte Dolce(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Unipomezia(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Sarnese win, 1 draw, 3 Paganese wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Sarnese 1-1 Paganese | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Paganese 2-1 Sarnese | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Sarnese 1-0 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Paganese 1-0 Sarnese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Sarnese 1-2 Paganese | Coppa Italia Serie D |
How many goals should we expect?
Sarnese score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Paganese score 1.8 and concede 1.5.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarnese | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Paganese | 1.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarnese sit 1st in Serie D - Girone G (14 points from 6 matches) and Paganese sit 7th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Paganese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
A question about Sarnese vs Paganese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy