Sarnese vs Paganese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Felice Squitieri, Sarno
The Footlab model makes Sarnese the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Paganese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarnese vs Paganese?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Sarnese (1,724) and Paganese (1,757).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarnese have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Paganese have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Cavese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Pompei(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Francavilla(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 10, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 0-6 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Nola 1925(home) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gravina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Sarnese win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Paganese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Sarnese 1-1 Paganese | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Paganese 2-1 Sarnese | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Sarnese 1-0 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Paganese 1-0 Sarnese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Sarnese 1-2 Paganese | Coppa Italia Serie D |
How many goals should we expect?
Sarnese score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Paganese score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarnese | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Paganese | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarnese vs Paganese?
- The Footlab model makes Sarnese the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Paganese.
- Where and when is Sarnese vs Paganese played?
- Sarnese vs Paganese is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Felice Squitieri, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.